Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Decline of the Goal Scoring
A major talking point of the EPL season so far has been the reduction of goals scored in open-play scenarios and the way teams are finding goals increasingly from set-plays instead.
Looking at how goals have been scored to matchday 11 last season, we note a drop of 39 goals in open play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and penalties, giving us 13 fewer in total.
If we look at overall statistics, the number of shots teams are taking have seen a remarkable 370 fewer in open play than this time previously.
Regardless of the notable jump in set-play finishes, records show just two more shots generated from these situations excluding penalties, indicating the efficiency teams are at devising strategies to score from dead-ball chances.
Goal Averages Show the Tale
The 301 goals notched in the first 110 fixtures up to now calculates at 2.74 scores each match, which if it continued for the entire campaign could be the least for since 2020-21, since 2020-21 (2.69).
Yet merely 196 goals scored in open play averages out 1.78 per fixture and is on course to be the least for 16 seasons, since 2009-10 (1.76 per game).
The 2009-10 season is also the sole English top-flight season to experience scoring more often from dead-balls without spot-kicks than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 per game).
Which Sides Are Most Responsible?
Regarding scoring from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have experienced by far the biggest drop, netting only four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 less than at this stage last season.
Apart from Wolverhampton, the EPL's decline in open play goals is predominantly a London thing, with five out of the London's seven clubs recording a minimum of five less scores from open-play than the previous year.
In fairness, this is primarily due to their scoring numerous goals at the beginning of last season as opposed to them having difficulty to find the net in open-play this season.
At the same time Man City have recorded the biggest increase, with nearly all of the 23 they've scored to date coming in open-play.
Dead-Ball Dominance
Looking at newly promoted sides with the relegated sides that they superseded. Play-off champions Sunderland have recorded three extra goals in open play than Southampton managed in their opening 11 matches on their way to relegation last season.
In terms of goals scored from dead-ball situations (not counting penalties), the Gunners and the Blues have experienced the largest rise, with each team replacing the five less goals that they've produced in open-play with an equal amount from set-pieces.
Manchester United have scored double the number goals from set-pieces as they did in the 11 games last season ahead of the manager took charge, while the Black Cats once more are more effective at converting than the club they replaced that went down.
Manchester City appear not to have received the trend about scoring more from set-plays, because they've recorded three fewer than last season, like Forest, even if that might be down to the tactical shift they've attempted to adopt.
League-Wide Trends
Six teams – the Gunners, the Blues, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – are the current campaign's top trend-setters by netting less scores from open-play and more from set-plays, while City stand as the unique club to buck the trend up to now by doing the complete reverse.
It will be interesting to observe if teams carry on to rely so heavily on set-pieces as matches continue or if they regain their general attacking flair and commence netting additional scores in open play as well.
