‘The Situation is Dire’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Stock.

The ripple effects of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is filled with video clips showing crowds outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as anxieties over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in food service establishments.

"The state of affairs is alarming. LPG simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most food outlets run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are turning to coal and wood and electric cookers to keep their operations going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a fifth of eateries are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their gas stocks have shrunk with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are varying as supplies ebb and flow. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers observe a increase in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Government Stance

Yet, the authorities insists there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore domestic LPG users and officials say cylinders are being redirected to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf impact energy markets.

About 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the vital passage now largely blocked by the conflict.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about a significant margin. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for essential sectors such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Some panic booking and hoarding has been caused by misinformation. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a ministry representative.

Growing Panic

Now the concern is spreading beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the description reads.

According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be exaggerated.

India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around a significant portion of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on vessel tracking and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The real vulnerability is cooking gas, analysts say.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through diversification. Processed petroleum stocks remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of hoarding.

An industry representative states exploitative practices.

"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by global trade flows. But in kitchens across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.