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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day prior to the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Grows

For two or three years there has been mounting fascination with the age of this side and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test team being over 30, except for young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

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Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any team knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a batch of simultaneous retirements, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a process that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the opening match, was the team management view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the team balance experiences a far greater shift with two players absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the team. Boland handling the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Test matches entering the attack after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what new injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how tricky stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of getting injured early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Unclear

The latter part of the contest may see the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane option, but after that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that change a-coming, coming around the bend, and England hasn't seen the success since they can't recall when.