Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.